Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0D 0x0d45…b9b3 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+3%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$29
other 29% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.1% -4.9% 75% 25% -4.9%
≤30d 7 +4.9% -5.1% 71% 29% -5.1%
≤90d 7 +4.9% -5.1% 71% 29% -5.1%
all 7 +4.9% -5.1% 71% 29% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 29% -5.1%
10% -14.2% 0% -14.2%
15% -22.5% 0% -22.4%
20% -30.1% 0% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.46 per $1 lost it wins $11.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage10d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $96 +$13 +14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $96 +$5 +5%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 21 $96 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $96 +$4 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $96 +$1 +2%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $96 +$13 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $95 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 81¢ $109 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $96 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 52¢ $101 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $96 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech SELL Naomi Osaka 74¢ $93 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 75¢ $96 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 72¢ $100 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 68¢ $96 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 70¢ $50 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 70¢ $47 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 68¢ $96 7d
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova SELL Ashlyn Krueger 88¢ $108 8d
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Ashlyn Krueger 77¢ $96 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $95 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $95 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records