Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d46…6881 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$104 (-29%) realized −$100 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 31% −$14
sports 22% +$18
other 21% −$43
world 12% −$22
politics 12% −$42
culture 2% +$4
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-57.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -40.7% -46.4% 19% 19% -64.3%
≤30d 16 -40.7% -46.4% 19% 19% -64.3%
≤90d 16 -40.7% -46.4% 19% 19% -64.3%
all 34 -53.4% -57.8% 21% 18% -64.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.8% 18% -64.0%
10% -61.8% 15% -67.4%
15% -65.5% 15% -70.6%
20% -68.9% 15% -73.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)34 / 49
History coverage196d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $105 $93 −$12 (-11%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
US government shutdown Saturday? Dec 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Dec 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb Dec 24 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Jensen Huang flip AI for Time Person of the Year by Friday? Dec 06 $6 +$4 +61%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs TheMongolz (BO1) Dec 05 $2 +$3 +156%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO1) Dec 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk be the next CEO of X? Dec 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid Dec 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? Dec 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31? Dec 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 18h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 18h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $21 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 2d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.40 · official $189.40 (match) · 62 history records