Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d4b…21c7 other 184 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized +$53 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%70W / 93L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,199
7 days−$1,039
14 days−$1,039
30 days−$1,075
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$405
crypto 25% −$35
other 13% −$422
politics 10% −$181
finance 4% +$218
sports 3% +$63
culture 0% −$7
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -60.4% -64.2% 18% 18% -47.4%
≤30d 80 -60.9% -64.6% 18% 18% -48.1%
≤90d 120 -39.3% -45.1% 31% 26% -19.5%
all 163 -21.0% -28.5% 43% 36% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 36% -8.8%
10% -35.4% 29% -17.6%
15% -41.6% 23% -25.5%
20% -47.3% 18% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$29 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses70 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions15
Markets (closed)163 / 184
History coverage166d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $160 $181 +$21 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 87¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 65¢ 16¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 82¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Poland" or "Polish" during Medal of Honor ceremony on Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 11? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top US Netflix movie th Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 18 $46 +$60 +130%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 10? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 9? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Patek Index hit $106,000 (HIGH) by April 30? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 FC Bayern München? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 FC Bayern München? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 18 $550 −$27 -5%
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Jun 18 $209 +$52 +25%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 8? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 8¢ $51 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 41h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 57¢ $25 41h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 41h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 42h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $10 45h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 45h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w BUY 32¢ $26 45h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $10 45h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY 24¢ $26 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 60¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 31¢ $10 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 32¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 5d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.27 · official $604.27 · 626 history records