Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:14:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d4d…1674 weather 963 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$519 (+1%) realized +$490 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate91%866W / 89L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$452
14 days+$393
30 days+$965
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% +$991
world 5% −$683
politics 1% +$26
other 0% +$14
tech 0% +$32
finance 0% +$23
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 +3.4% -6.4% 90% 37% -5.6%
≤30d 501 +1.4% -8.2% 90% 28% -6.0%
≤90d 863 -0.2% -9.7% 90% 23% -9.7%
all 955 +0.2% -9.4% 91% 22% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 22% -8.9%
10% -18.0% 7% -17.6%
15% -26.0% 3% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$36 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$444
Realized+$490
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses866 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)955 / 963
History coverage121d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 955 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? No 93¢ 87¢ $140 $131 −$9 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? No 91¢ 90¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? No 72¢ 96¢ $51 $68 +$17 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? No 77¢ 100¢ $41 $54 +$13 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $48 $51 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? No 83¢ 100¢ $38 $46 +$8 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? No 82¢ 76¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $198 −$93 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $62 +$12 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $77 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $55 +$11 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $121 +$19 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$11 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $85 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $165 +$24 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $42 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $110 +$13 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $58 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $126 +$20 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $58 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $55 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 −$41 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $111 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $40 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $48 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $52 +$15 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $82 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $102 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $78 +$11 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $53 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $82 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $37 +$20 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $58 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $126 +$35 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$8 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $59 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $72 +$14 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $48 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $19 55m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $77 56m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $75 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $66 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $48 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 10¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $21 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $42 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $39 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 60¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $87 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 6¢ $9 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 45¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 63¢ $9 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $21 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $23 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $9 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $62 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $31 16h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $46 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $76 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $443.99 · official $443.89 (match) · 2662 history records