Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

0D 0x0d57…9d36 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$639 (+27%) realized +$641 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip

Net edge+21%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown3%max

Avg bet$603per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+26.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+39.5%	+26.2%	67%	67%	+15.9%
≤30d	3	+39.5%	+26.2%	67%	67%	+15.9%
≤90d	3	+39.5%	+26.2%	67%	67%	+15.9%
all	3	+39.5%	+26.2%	67%	67%	+15.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.2%	67%	+15.9%
10%	+14.1%	67%	+4.8%
15%	+3.1%	67%	-5.4%
20%	-7.0%	33%	-14.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$319 vs −$19 · ×16.8 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×33.6 per $1 lost it wins $33.6

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$198

Realized+$641

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage3d

Avg bet$603

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown3%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Yes	52¢	52¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$203	+$142	+70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$992	+$496	+50%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 16	$1,013	−$19	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$203	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$203	38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$992	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	87¢	$994	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	88¢	$1,013	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.08 · official $198.08 (match) · 7 history records