Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0d5c…98ee other 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,547 (+5%) realized +$1,547 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate45%39W / 47L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$590est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,738
7 days+$2,274
14 days+$2,236
30 days+$2,488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$454
other 35% +$1,090
world 3% +$944
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +12.5% +1.8% 45% 29% -0.2%
≤30d 85 +8.6% -1.8% 46% 22% -2.8%
≤90d 86 +8.4% -1.9% 45% 22% -2.8%
all 86 +8.4% -1.9% 45% 22% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 22% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 15% -12.1%
15% -19.9% 10% -20.6%
20% -27.7% 8% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$21 · ×4.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.51 per $1 lost it wins $3.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,547
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses39 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$590
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage30d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,376 +$605 +44%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1,074 +$944 +88%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $971 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $22 +$62 +284%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $361 −$25 -7%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $811 −$69 -8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $19 −$19 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $785 +$139 +18%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $1,078 −$63 -6%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,920 +$177 +9%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,441 +$23 +2%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $496 −$35 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $400 +$14 +4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $186 +$5 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3,387 −$99 -3%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $15 −$8 -53%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,116 −$21 -2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $800 −$38 -5%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,324 −$167 -13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $276 +$66 +24%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $794 +$235 +30%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $422 +$530 +126%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $854 −$9 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $441 −$25 -6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$4 -11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $597 +$129 +22%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $390 −$9 -2%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $353 −$65 -18%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $987 −$108 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $410 +$132 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $404 −$2 -1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $455 −$32 -7%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $431 −$16 -4%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $59 −$27 -46%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $3,027 −$39 -1%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $428 +$54 +13%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $222 −$3 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $496 −$11 -2%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $450 +$1 +0%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 07 $227 −$12 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $25 +$1 +4%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $162 +$5 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $99 −$3 -3%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 06 $15 +$37 +245%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $478 −$34 -7%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $37 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 68¢ $61 38m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 68¢ $19 38m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 68¢ $10 38m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 68¢ $177 38m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 68¢ $1,714 38m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 46¢ $1,376 39m
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL No 87¢ $1,306 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL No 89¢ $712 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $371 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $238 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $233 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $233 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 79¢ $146 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 81¢ $774 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 81¢ $50 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $971 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 12¢ $84 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $12 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $10 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $0 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $6 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 14¢ $6 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 31¢ $133 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 35¢ $6 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $77 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $79 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 688 history records