Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0D 0x0d5c…d885 crypto 916 markets active 7h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$91 (-1%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate75%691W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$20
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$165
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +0.3% -9.2% 73% 6% -9.7%
≤30d 229 +1.5% -8.1% 74% 24% -11.5%
≤90d 674 +5.2% -4.9% 77% 43% -12.0%
all 916 +5.2% -4.8% 75% 47% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 47% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 32% -19.8%
15% -22.3% 9% -27.6%
20% -29.9% 2% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses691 / 225
Open positions0
Markets (closed)916 / 916
History coverage105d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 916 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2331 history records