Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:03:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0D 0x0d5f…c88e crypto 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$221 (+11%) realized +$227 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate74%79W / 28L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day109.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$124
other 7% +$64
sports 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -3.0% -12.3% 74% 42% -0.7%
≤30d 107 -3.0% -12.3% 74% 42% -0.7%
≤90d 107 -3.0% -12.3% 74% 42% -0.7%
all 107 -3.0% -12.3% 74% 42% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 42% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 38% -10.2%
15% -28.3% 10% -18.9%
20% -35.4% 9% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$227
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses79 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)107 / 111
History coverage3d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day109.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 73¢ 73¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+40%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 40¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $30 +$22 +73%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $50 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$10 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$23 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$78 +295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $18 +$2 +9%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$23 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $9 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.30 · official $43.80 (match) · 394 history records