Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:41:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0D 0x0d65…5763 other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+61%) realized +$19 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +176% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +130% what you keep after slip
Net edge+130%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$23
world 25% $0
sports 23% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+149.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +176.0% +149.7% 67% 67% +133.4%
≤30d 15 +176.0% +149.7% 67% 67% +133.4%
≤90d 15 +176.0% +149.7% 67% 67% +133.4%
all 15 +176.0% +149.7% 67% 67% +133.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +149.7% 67% +133.4%
10% +125.8% 67% +111.0%
15% +104.0% 67% +90.7%
20% +84.0% 60% +72.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +158% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +176% · $-wt +158% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +276% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.11 per $1 lost it wins $5.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +360%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $1 +$7 +543%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +257%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +373%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +71%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +475%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +332%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +600%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 16m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $2 52m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 55m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $9 1h
New Zealand leading at halftime? SELL Yes 63¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 1h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 59¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 3h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 28 history records