Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

0D 0x0d67…bc9f other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown63%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day3.6pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-27.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-19.6%	-27.2%	50%	33%	+14.7%
≤30d	6	-19.6%	-27.2%	50%	33%	+14.7%
≤90d	6	-19.6%	-27.2%	50%	33%	+14.7%
all	6	-19.6%	-27.2%	50%	33%	+14.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.2%	33%	+14.7%
10%	-34.2%	33%	+3.7%
15%	-40.6%	33%	-6.3%
20%	-46.4%	17%	-15.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -20% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage3d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day3.6

Drawdown63%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$68	+$28	+42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$18	+$20	+109%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$3	−$3	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$3	$0	+2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$10	−$9	-91%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Jun 26	$8	−$7	-79%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-	BUY	38¢	$67	24m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	43¢	$29	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	43¢	$29	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	55¢	$39	3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	47¢	$18	24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	40¢	$3	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	98¢	$3	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$8	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $66.09 · 14 history records