Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:20:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d6a…4ada sports 813 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15,310 (+13%) realized +$15,296 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate60%533W / 355L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day57.8pace
Fees−$795est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$1,257
other 34% +$1,478
world 0% −$9
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -32.1% -38.6% 19% 12% -56.0%
≤30d 287 -6.0% -15.0% 46% 28% -20.8%
≤90d 888 +8.4% -1.9% 60% 35% -12.5%
all 888 +8.4% -1.9% 60% 35% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 35% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 22% -20.9%
15% -19.9% 16% -28.5%
20% -27.7% 12% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$54 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$15,296
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses533 / 355
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$795
Open positions1
Markets (closed)888 / 813
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$142
Trades / day57.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 888 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
RCA Zemamra vs. OC Safi: O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 100¢ $14 $28 +$14 (+103%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Racing Louisville FC vs. Orlando Pride: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $0 +$5 +1347%
Chicago Stars FC vs. Boston Legacy FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $0 +$19 +5744%
Club Universitario de Deportes vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $0 −$60 -32655%
AHL: Texas Stars vs. San Jose Barracuda Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-29? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 25 $84 −$95 -113%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-04-04? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. BSC Young Boys end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-11? Jun 25 $3 −$234 -7612%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-04? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brackley Town FC win on 2026-03-28? Jun 25 $286 −$287 -100%
Will CSD Xelajú MC win on 2026-04-01? Jun 25 $37 −$54 -146%
San Marino vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $293 −$293 -100%
Will Águilas Doradas Rionegro win on 2026-03-31? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
St Mirren FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Kamatamare Sanuki win on 2026-03-29? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Mazatlán FC vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Charlotte FC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Grenoble Foot 38 win on 2026-04-03? Jun 25 $101 −$102 -101%
Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $98 −$99 -101%
Utah vs. Canucks Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-01-31? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Southend United FC vs. Yeovil Town FC end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
NL: Lausanne vs. Geneve-Servette Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Mantova 1911: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $71 −$71 -100%
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Hertha BSC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Juventus FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Will FK Teplice win on 2026-03-15? Jun 25 $5 −$6 -134%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-04-04? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 25 $101 −$99 -98%
MFK Karviná vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Palestino end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$57 -384%
Will SC Bastia win on 2026-04-03? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-02-26? Jun 25 $59 −$68 -115%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-04? Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Penguins vs. Lightning Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-04-03? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-31? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-01-29? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-04-04? Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Calcio Padova vs. AC Monza end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Once Caldas vs. Jaguares de Córdoba FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Porto vs. Rangers FC end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FCSB win on 2026-04-03? Jun 25 $87 −$87 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 25 $96 −$96 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-02-01? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
RS Berkane vs. AS FAR: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $434 1h
RCA Zemamra vs. OC Safi: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $499 1h
RCA Zemamra vs. OC Safi: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $65 1h
RCA Zemamra vs. OC Safi: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $65 1h
RCA Zemamra vs. OC Safi: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $65 1h
RCA Zemamra vs. OC Safi: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $65 1h
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 1h
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $125 1h
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $15 1h
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
RS Berkane vs. AS FAR: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $27 1h
RS Berkane vs. AS FAR: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $91 1h
RS Berkane vs. AS FAR: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $91 1h
RS Berkane vs. AS FAR: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $91 1h
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 68¢ $89 2h
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $46 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $243 40h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $244 40h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $18 40h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 40h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $37 40h
América FC vs. Criciúma EC: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 44h
América FC vs. Criciúma EC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $14 44h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $91 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 33¢ $255 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $9 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $5 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $48 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.67 · official $27.89 (match) · 3500 history records