Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d6a…23d2 crypto 685 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$173 (-2%) realized −$173 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate86%588W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day86.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$25
14 days−$93
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$188
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -1.6% -11.0% 89% 5% -10.9%
≤30d 685 -5.6% -14.6% 86% 8% -11.4%
≤90d 685 -5.6% -14.6% 86% 8% -11.4%
all 685 -5.6% -14.6% 86% 8% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 8% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 2% -19.8%
15% -30.2% 0% -27.6%
20% -37.0% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses588 / 97
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)685 / 685
History coverage16d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day86.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 685 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 33h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $61 33h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 97¢ $5 33h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $55 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2111 history records