Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d6b…3b13 other 28 markets active 6h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$205 (-46%) realized −$205 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%3W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$209
14 days−$209
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$147
sports 24% −$46
politics 4% −$19
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-70.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -70.8% -73.6% 8% 4% -54.4%
≤30d 25 -70.8% -73.6% 8% 4% -54.4%
≤90d 25 -70.8% -73.6% 8% 4% -54.4%
all 28 -67.3% -70.4% 11% 4% -52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.4% 4% -52.8%
10% -73.3% 4% -57.3%
15% -75.8% 4% -61.4%
20% -78.2% 4% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$205
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses3 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage240d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $34 +$19 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
US x China tariff agreement by November 10? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 24? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump pardon Diddy by Friday? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $41 −$2 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$3 -5%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 20? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 03 $15 $0 +3%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Nov 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Oct 29 $5 −$1 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $13 5h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 19h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 45¢ $23 19h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $23 21h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes $5 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes $5 29h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes $5 29h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $5 29h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $5 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $34 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $38 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $58 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $41 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $61 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 22¢ $28 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 6d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $15 226d
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? SELL Yes $0 226d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 231d
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 238d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records