Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d6c…4dba crypto 1058 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$165 (-3%) realized −$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%577W / 481L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day70.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$9
14 days+$11
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 -2.8% -12.1% 70% 46% -10.3%
≤30d 1058 -9.3% -18.0% 55% 44% -13.4%
≤90d 1058 -9.3% -18.0% 55% 44% -13.4%
all 1058 -9.3% -18.0% 55% 44% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 44% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 40% -21.7%
15% -33.0% 37% -29.2%
20% -39.6% 31% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses577 / 481
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1058 / 1058
History coverage27d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day70.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1058 Trades
no open positions (402 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 2538 history records