Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:01:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0D 0x0d6c…43ab other 10 markets active 3d ago coverage 242d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-5%) realized −$10 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$8
sports 9% −$20
world 4% +$1
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.6% -19.1% 60% 60% -12.8%
≤30d 7 -6.1% -15.1% 71% 43% -12.4%
≤90d 7 -6.1% -15.1% 71% 43% -12.4%
all 8 -17.9% -25.7% 62% 38% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 38% -14.5%
10% -32.8% 38% -22.6%
15% -39.3% 38% -30.1%
20% -45.2% 25% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage242d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Jan 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $20 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 7d
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 170d
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $5 170d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 88¢ $5 170d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.48 · official $8.48 (match) · 15 history records