Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d6d…2427 politics 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,456 (-1%) realized −$1,457 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate27%33W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,047per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$940now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$18
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$69
other 31% +$106
sports 19% −$1,506
world 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 67 -6.5% -15.4% 9% 1% -11.6%
all 121 +8.4% -2.0% 27% 15% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 15% -10.6%
10% -11.3% 15% -19.1%
15% -19.9% 13% -26.9%
20% -27.8% 12% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,322) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +22% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$26 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$940
Realized−$1,457
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses33 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,047
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $704 $705 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? No 100¢ 99¢ $236 $236 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,094 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,874 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,861 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,453 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,632 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $969 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,578 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,114 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $7,698 −$8 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,084 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,044 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $620 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,079 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,604 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,147 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,082 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $1,096 −$2 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $373 +$1 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $559 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $328 +$1 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $485 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,510 −$3 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $4,456 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,014 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $932 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $4,285 −$4 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $275 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,301 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $270 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $545 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $236 10m
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $213 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $704 46h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,042 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,043 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $928 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $930 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,092 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,094 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $893 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $894 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $985 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $986 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $905 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $907 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $980 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $982 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $928 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $929 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $953 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $955 12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,039 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,040 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,068 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,069 15d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $968 15d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $969 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,085 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,086 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $940.33 · official $940.33 (match) · 387 history records