Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0D 0x0d6d…50f8 finance 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 191d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+7%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 60% +$50
other 27% +$6
world 13% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +10.7% +0.1% 100% 100% +0.1%
≤90d 5 +9.5% -0.9% 80% 40% -2.5%
all 6 +9.4% -1.1% 83% 33% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 33% -2.4%
10% -10.5% 17% -11.7%
15% -19.2% 17% -20.2%
20% -27.1% 0% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.61 per $1 lost it wins $3.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage191d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $104 $104 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $93 +$10 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 30 $65 +$29 +45%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 29 $138 +$6 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 15 $79 −$15 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 02 $70 +$5 +7%
Maduro out in 2025? Mar 15 $64 +$6 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $104 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 90¢ $93 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? BUY Yes 68¢ $65 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 100¢ $65 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 97¢ $63 67d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $63 67d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $79 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 96¢ $79 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 90¢ $75 80d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 94¢ $70 96d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $64 190d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.94 · official $103.94 (match) · 15 history records