Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0D 0x0d6e…be28 sports 6 markets active 13d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+6%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$35
other 39% +$48
crypto 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -23.3% -30.6% 50% 33% -5.7%
≤90d 6 -23.3% -30.6% 50% 33% -5.7%
all 6 -23.3% -30.6% 50% 33% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 33% -5.7%
10% -37.2% 33% -14.7%
15% -43.3% 33% -23.0%
20% -48.8% 17% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +106%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $58 +$4 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $20 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $63 13d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 13d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $26 14d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 75¢ $36 14d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $58 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records