trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 3 | -13.1% | -21.3% | 33% | 33% | -78.7% |
| all | 24 | -8.2% | -17.0% | 42% | 12% | -19.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.0% | 12% | -19.3% |
| 10% | -24.9% | 8% | -27.0% |
| 15% | -32.2% | 4% | -34.0% |
| 20% | -38.8% | 4% | -40.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $36 | $36 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 12 | $12 | +$8 | +65% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 27 | $135 | −$133 | -99% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 01 | $19 | −$1 | -4% |
| Ducks vs. Utah | Mar 20 | $82 | −$82 | -100% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 12 | $4 | $0 | -10% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 02 | $134 | +$1 | +0% |
| US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? | Jan 30 | $140 | +$1 | +1% |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | Jan 27 | $134 | +$6 | +5% |
| US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | Jan 19 | $129 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Solana dip to $80 in January? | Jan 15 | $129 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jan 13 | $1 | $0 | -14% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Jan 07 | $133 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Dec 30 | $2 | $0 | -18% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23? | Dec 24 | $133 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | Dec 21 | $4 | +$1 | +14% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 10 | $129 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 03 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | Dec 01 | $134 | −$2 | -2% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Nov 21 | $135 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 19 | $3 | +$1 | +26% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Nov 17 | $126 | $0 | -0% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Nov 14 | $4 | −$1 | -12% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Nov 10 | $134 | $0 | +0% |
| Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Nov 05 | $1 | $0 | -50% |