Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d70…5b85 weather 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate90%111W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% $0
sports 0% −$7
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 28 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 98 -6.1% -15.0% 93% 2% -9.7%
all 124 -8.7% -17.4% 90% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 2% -9.8%
10% -25.3% 1% -18.4%
15% -32.5% 1% -26.3%
20% -39.1% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses111 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage112d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on June 27 Jun 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 25? Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 7? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 4? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 3? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 2? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 1? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on May 31? Jun 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 29? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 28? May 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 27? May 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C or higher on May 26? May 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on May 25? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) May 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $1 +$1 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 24? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 23? May 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on May 22? May 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on May 21? May 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or higher on May 20? May 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 17? May 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on May 16? May 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 15? May 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 14? May 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on May 13? May 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on May 13? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 13? May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on May 12? May 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 11? May 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on May 10? May 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on May 9? May 10 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on June 27 BUY No 100¢ $30 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $30 46h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $29 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $29 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $29 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $29 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $29 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $29 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 BUY No 100¢ $29 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $29 17d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $29 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $29 19d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $29 20d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $29 20d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $29 24d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $29 25d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $29 26d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $29 26d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $29 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $29 28d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $29 30d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $29 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.94 · official $29.94 (match) · 244 history records