Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:48:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d70…1048 sports 88 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+8%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%39W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day58.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$99
crypto 36% −$5
other 26% −$46
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -1.3% -10.7% 44% 40% -3.7%
≤30d 88 -1.3% -10.7% 44% 40% -3.7%
≤90d 88 -1.3% -10.7% 44% 40% -3.7%
all 88 -1.3% -10.7% 44% 40% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 40% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 35% -12.9%
15% -27.1% 33% -21.3%
20% -34.2% 27% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses39 / 49
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day58.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +87%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$55 +276%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -22%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$1 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$6 +63%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$8 -75%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +156%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$38 +249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$1 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$10 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$9 +31%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -67%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 −$36 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $8 −$4 -44%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 +$9 +33%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $6 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Under 95¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $75 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $7 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 SELL Under 14¢ $2 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Under 17¢ $2 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $24 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $2 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $3 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 236 history records