Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d72…a791 sports 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$212 (-1%) realized −$218 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%139W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$200est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days−$312
14 days−$61
30 days−$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$334
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +8.8% -1.5% 53% 53% -26.8%
≤30d 108 -3.6% -12.7% 52% 51% -12.1%
≤90d 258 -5.4% -14.4% 54% 52% -11.4%
all 258 -5.4% -14.4% 54% 52% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 52% -11.4%
10% -22.6% 44% -19.9%
15% -30.1% 36% -27.6%
20% -36.9% 28% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$52 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$218
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses139 / 119
Est. fees paid−$200
Open positions6
Markets (closed)258 / 264
History coverage84d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 70¢ 70¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 53¢ 55¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 89¢ 94¢ $22 $24 +$1 (+6%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 56¢ 62¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+11%)
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 64¢ 70¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs HOTU 63¢ 58¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $89 +$89 +100%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5) Jun 17 $26 +$20 +76%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $42 +$40 +97%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $97 −$96 -99%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $123 +$119 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $134 −$132 -99%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $80 −$79 -99%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $83 −$82 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $81 −$80 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$10 +414%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $172 −$169 -98%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $125 +$56 +44%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $124 +$54 +44%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $147 −$145 -98%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $124 +$70 +57%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 11 $139 +$63 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $59 −$58 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $43 +$37 +86%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $46 +$39 +86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $80 +$38 +48%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $82 +$19 +23%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 10 $6 +$24 +365%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $63 +$2 +3%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $89 +$43 +48%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $7 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 09 $79 −$12 -16%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $37 −$36 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $17 +$27 +158%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $52 +$26 +50%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $60 +$42 +70%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $94 −$93 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $45 +$58 +129%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $18 −$18 -98%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $304 +$104 +34%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $169 +$33 +20%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St Jun 06 $73 +$38 +52%
Map Handicap: OXUJI (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 05 $74 −$73 -98%
Game Handicap: CCG (-2.5) vs Winthrop University (+2.5) Jun 05 $25 +$5 +20%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 04 $40 +$33 +83%
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 04 $63 −$22 -36%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 04 $61 −$5 -8%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playo Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5) Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $59 +$11 +19%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 03 $22 +$38 +175%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $51 +$51 +101%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $16 −$16 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY HOTU 63¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 69¢ $26 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $19 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $15 26h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $51 26h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $23 32h
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 56¢ $26 34h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $42 42h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $49 46h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 64¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $48 2d
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 89¢ $22 2d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 50¢ $60 3d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 50¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 50¢ $52 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $67 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $67 3d
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) BUY Eintracht Spandau 35¢ $11 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $80 3d
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY BASEMENT BOYS 14¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY BASEMENT BOYS 14¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY BASEMENT BOYS 14¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY BASEMENT BOYS 15¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY aimclub 64¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY aimclub 61¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $47 4d
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY aimclub 64¢ $66 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $34 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.74 · official $180.65 (match) · 607 history records