Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0D 0x0d76…4cca crypto 1065 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$452 (-2%) realized −$452 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate93%989W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$45
14 days−$516
30 days−$514
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$406
other 7% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -3.3% -12.5% 91% 14% -11.7%
≤30d 1036 -3.4% -12.6% 93% 4% -12.1%
≤90d 1041 -3.4% -12.6% 93% 4% -12.1%
all 1065 -2.8% -12.0% 93% 5% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 5% -12.0%
10% -20.4% 3% -20.4%
15% -28.1% 2% -28.1%
20% -35.2% 1% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$452
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses989 / 76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1065 / 1065
History coverage113d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1065 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $17 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2208 history records