Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0D 0x0d7a…eec4 crypto 575 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$294 (+3%) realized +$291 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%276W / 295L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$194
14 days−$161
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$179
other 4% +$10
sports 4% −$41
world 0% −$10
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -20.4% -27.9% 42% 38% -26.5%
≤30d 146 -9.0% -17.7% 44% 40% -15.9%
≤90d 313 -6.7% -15.6% 45% 42% -14.7%
all 571 -2.4% -11.7% 48% 46% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 46% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 45% -17.1%
15% -27.9% 42% -25.1%
20% -34.9% 36% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$291
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses276 / 295
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)571 / 575
History coverage102d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +70%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$4 +43%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 +$40 +786%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$3 +37%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$40 +786%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$8 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 98¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 54¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.46 · official $13.27 (match) · 3174 history records