Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0D 0x0d7c…3b0c other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$306 (-2%) realized −$161 · open −$145
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate79%37W / 10L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$413
sports 23% +$51
world 7% −$75
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 25% -3.1%
≤30d 4 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 25% -3.1%
≤90d 4 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 25% -3.1%
all 47 -13.3% -21.6% 79% 13% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 13% -11.6%
10% -29.1% 9% -20.1%
15% -35.9% 2% -27.8%
20% -42.2% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$92 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$161
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses37 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage403d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $141 +$4 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $136 +$5 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $120 +$16 +13%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $110 +$11 +10%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 10 $554 −$554 -100%
Will Sheffield United FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-09? Feb 09 $553 +$5 +1%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-02-09? Feb 09 $548 +$5 +1%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-09? Feb 09 $532 +$16 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $522 +$10 +2%
SC Braga vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 08 $499 +$23 +5%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $489 +$10 +2%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $479 +$9 +2%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Feb 07 $456 +$24 +5%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) Feb 06 $407 +$4 +1%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-05? Feb 05 $441 +$11 +2%
Rangers FC vs. Kilmarnock FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 04 $428 +$13 +3%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-02-03? Feb 04 $420 +$9 +2%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-03? Feb 03 $416 +$4 +1%
Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-02-03? Feb 03 $412 +$4 +1%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-02? Feb 03 $391 +$21 +5%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-02-02? Feb 02 $384 +$7 +2%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $368 +$15 +4%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $336 +$33 +10%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $332 +$3 +1%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $328 +$4 +1%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $309 +$16 +5%
Chelsea FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 31 $301 +$11 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Jan 31 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $325 +$3 +1%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $319 +$7 +2%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-29? Jan 29 $306 +$12 +4%
VfB Stuttgart vs. BSC Young Boys: O/U 2.5 Jan 29 $297 +$9 +3%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January? Jan 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 6PM ET Jan 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: O/U 4.5 Jan 28 $246 +$86 +35%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-15? Jan 28 $234 +$18 +8%
Israel strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $214 +$20 +10%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $168 +$46 +27%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 08 $231 −$63 -27%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jan 04 $174 +$58 +33%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $112 +$57 +51%
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? Jan 03 $25 −$21 -83%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 22 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? May 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? May 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08? May 08 $45 +$7 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $146 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $145 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $141 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $142 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $136 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $136 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $120 21h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 91¢ $110 23h
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $539 124d
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 124d
Will Sheffield United FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 125d
Will Sheffield United FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 125d
Will Sheffield United FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 125d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $181 125d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 125d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 125d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 125d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 125d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $297 125d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 125d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-09? BUY Yes 99¢ $553 125d
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-02-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $553 125d
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-02-09? BUY Yes 99¢ $548 125d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $547 125d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-09? BUY Yes 97¢ $502 126d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-09? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 126d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $532 126d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 98¢ $522 126d
SC Braga vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $522 126d
SC Braga vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $499 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 134 history records