Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:34:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d7e…cb13 world 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,348 (+71%) realized +$11,486 · open −$138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate62%21W / 13L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$768now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$462
7 days+$462
14 days+$606
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$11,370
world 39% +$514
politics 11% −$536
economics 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +15.5% +4.5% 100% 67% +3.7%
≤30d 18 -0.6% -10.1% 78% 28% -7.4%
≤90d 34 +20.5% +9.0% 62% 29% +68.0%
all 34 +20.5% +9.0% 62% 29% +68.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 29% +68.0%
10% -1.4% 21% +51.9%
15% -10.9% 12% +37.2%
20% -19.7% 12% +23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$603 vs −$105 · ×5.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.98 per $1 lost it wins $10.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$768
Realized+$11,486
Unrealized−$138
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses21 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions24
Markets (closed)34 / 58
History coverage68d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $301 $187 −$114 (-38%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $142 $162 +$20 (+14%)
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $146 $140 −$6 (-4%)
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $128 $115 −$13 (-10%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $28 $36 +$8 (+31%)
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-35%)
China coup attempt before 2027? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $18 $6 −$12 (-66%)
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-30%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-55%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,080 +$157 +14%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $844 +$190 +22%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $1,228 +$116 +10%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 06 $288 +$144 +50%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 26 $124 −$77 -62%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $551 −$551 -100%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? May 25 $73 +$2 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $58 +$2 +4%
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 25 $381 +$11 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $46 +$4 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $235 −$5 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $399 +$101 +25%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 23 $126 +$13 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $179 +$21 +12%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi May 22 $2 $0 +0%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? May 22 $8 +$1 +8%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 20 $9 $0 +1%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $6,506 +$11,211 +172%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? May 15 $13 −$2 -13%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? May 13 $1 $0 -60%
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? May 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027? May 13 $4 $0 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Megaquake by June 30? May 12 $4 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 11 $16 +$3 +17%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 10 $52 +$42 +81%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $65 +$569 +876%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by April 30, 2026? May 01 $212 −$60 -28%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $175 −$173 -99%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 30 $284 −$280 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $63 +$19 +30%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 27 $657 +$43 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10m
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10m
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 13m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 47m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 57¢ $15 3h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 57¢ $15 3h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 58¢ $6 3h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 57¢ $17 3h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 57¢ $17 3h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 57¢ $17 3h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 58¢ $29 4h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 58¢ $29 4h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 32¢ $32 4h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 32¢ $4 5h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 31¢ $15 5h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 32¢ $3 5h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 31¢ $9 5h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 32¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $767.58 · official $767.58 (match) · 1304 history records