trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +11.9% | +1.2% | 20% | 20% | -11.0% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +6.5% | -3.6% | 11% | 11% | -10.7% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 18% | 12% | -10.0% |
| all | 17 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 18% | 12% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.8% | 12% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -13.9% | 12% | -18.6% |
| 15% | -22.3% | 12% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -29.9% | 6% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | No | 23¢ | 22¢ | $110 | $103 | −$7 (-7%) |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-15%) |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-25%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 27 | $600 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 27 | $900 | −$1 | -0% |
| Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score | Jun 26 | $12 | +$8 | +73% |
| Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary | Jun 25 | $289 | −$29 | -10% |
| Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele | Jun 25 | $372 | −$13 | -4% |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | May 31 | $170 | −$1 | -1% |
| Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? | May 30 | $240 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | May 30 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? | May 30 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? | May 25 | $60 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | May 24 | $103 | +$39 | +38% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 24 | $412 | +$14 | +3% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 22 | $703 | −$38 | -5% |
| Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? | May 18 | $180 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? | May 17 | $60 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | May 17 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | May 13 | $45 | −$3 | -7% |