Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d83…272c sports 620 markets active 11d ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,577 (-7%) realized −$6,577 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%266W / 354L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$759est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$996
30 days−$2,481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$5,953
crypto 5% −$757
other 3% −$651
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 132 -22.4% -29.8% 36% 36% -22.6%
≤90d 505 -34.6% -40.8% 32% 31% -34.3%
all 620 -14.1% -22.3% 43% 41% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 41% -16.7%
10% -29.7% 38% -24.7%
15% -36.5% 36% -32.0%
20% -42.7% 28% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$113 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,577
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses266 / 354
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$759
Open positions0
Markets (closed)620 / 620
History coverage113d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 620 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $305 −$100 -33%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $200 +$279 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 17 $143 −$143 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $87 −$86 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Atmane vs Landaluce Jun 15 $197 +$127 +64%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $173 +$191 +110%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $264 −$264 -100%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $224 −$224 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $173 −$130 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $182 +$49 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $286 +$164 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $234 −$64 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $409 +$50 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$48 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $209 +$127 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $161 −$90 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $162 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $462 −$56 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $135 −$92 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $78 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $89 +$53 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $162 +$130 +80%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $303 +$88 +29%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $491 −$131 -27%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$16 -16%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$76 +75%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $172 +$157 +91%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $132 +$163 +124%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 30¢ $31 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 32¢ $71 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $480 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $193 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $7 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $172 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 50¢ $203 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 32¢ $87 10d
Set 2 Winner: Atmane vs Landaluce SELL Landaluce 100¢ $325 12d
Set 2 Winner: Atmane vs Landaluce BUY Landaluce 60¢ $197 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 12d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 16¢ $21 12d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 42¢ $122 12d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $363 12d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 52¢ $91 12d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 44¢ $71 12d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 49¢ $102 12d
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 32¢ $224 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $264 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $102 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $51 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 41¢ $51 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 51¢ $109 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $132 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1982 history records