Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:08:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0D 0x0d84…73c1 crypto 1998 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$732 (+12%) realized +$39 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%968W / 719L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day221.5pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,641
7 days−$1,126
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$1,578
other 10% +$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 722 -21.5% -29.0% 39% 39% -49.9%
≤30d 1687 +18.0% +6.8% 57% 57% -8.8%
≤90d 1687 +18.0% +6.8% 57% 57% -8.8%
all 1687 +18.0% +6.8% 57% 57% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover221.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.8% 57% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -3.4% 56% -17.5%
15% -12.8% 56% -25.5%
20% -21.3% 56% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses968 / 719
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1687 / 1998
History coverage10d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day221.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1687 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Up 49¢ 72¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+46%)
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 51¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+96%)
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 52¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+92%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 37m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.67 · official $2.58 · 3500 history records