Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d86…08e1 other 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 220L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$19
14 days−$30
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$38
sports 20% −$13
politics 8% −$2
culture 6% −$5
economics 6% −$3
crypto 5% −$3
world 2% −$4
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 62 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 236 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)236 / 237
History coverage127d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $700 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $290 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $265 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $389 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $319 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $257 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $920 −$3 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $171 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $226 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $277 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $233 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $524 −$3 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $358 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $399 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $138 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $798 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $166 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $378 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $324 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $218 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $503 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $592 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $57 2h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $58 4h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 6h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 8h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 11h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 13h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 24h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 26h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 30h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 32h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $29 32h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $29 33h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 34h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 39h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 40h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $3 40h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 43h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 45h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 45h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 46h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.37 · official $57.37 (match) · 1290 history records