Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d86…37c0 world 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%24W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$7
other 24% $0
politics 22% +$1
sports 11% −$10
economics 4% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 25 -0.7% -10.2% 24% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 72 -0.6% -10.1% 26% 0% -9.8%
all 79 -1.4% -10.8% 30% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 3% -10.1%
10% -19.3% 3% -18.7%
15% -27.1% 1% -26.6%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses24 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage532d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $28 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $29 −$1 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $7 $0 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $60 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $91 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $58 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $66 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $74 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $4 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $31 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $32 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $36 −$4 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $42 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $42 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $35 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 18 $22 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $3 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 2m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $12 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $16 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $21 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $7 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $8 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $20 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $28 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $29 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $22 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $7 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 291 history records