Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0D 0x0d89…dc09 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$321 (+18%) realized +$525 · open −$204
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR85%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$791now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$75
other 48% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +85%
net ROI/market (all)+38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +52.5% +38.0% 85% 85% +26.5%
≤30d 13 +52.5% +38.0% 85% 85% +26.5%
≤90d 13 +52.5% +38.0% 85% 85% +26.5%
all 13 +52.5% +38.0% 85% 85% +26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.0% 85% +26.5%
10% ← realistic here +24.8% 85% +14.4%
15% +12.7% 85% +3.3%
20% +1.7% 77% -6.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +77% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$75 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$791
Realized+$525
Unrealized−$204
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions17
Markets (closed)13 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 100¢ $50 $81 +$31 (+61%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
DR Congo leading at halftime? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 68¢ 32¢ $100 $48 −$52 (-52%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 24¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-42%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 30¢ 24¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-18%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $50 $13 −$37 (-73%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 45¢ 10¢ $50 $12 −$38 (-77%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $51 +$33 +66%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $50 +$22 +44%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $20 +$24 +119%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 27 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$68 +67%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $51 +$65 +129%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 26 $51 +$30 +60%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $101 +$65 +65%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $30 +$26 +86%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$60 +60%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 69¢ $50 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 30¢ $26 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $20 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $51 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 68¢ $101 2h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 29h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $20 29h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 29h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 29h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 29h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 29h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 29h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $101 29h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 29h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 29h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $101 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $791.31 · official $789.02 (match) · 41 history records