Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0D 0x0d8b…35dc other 19 markets active 4d ago coverage 106d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$58 (+17%) realized +$70 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR92%break-even
Win rate100%12W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$15
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$4
world 28% +$28
tech 21% +$7
sports 9% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +92%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +34.3% +21.5% 100% 100% +18.1%
≤30d 6 +25.8% +13.8% 100% 83% +8.2%
≤90d 12 +27.0% +14.9% 100% 92% +13.4%
all 12 +27.0% +14.9% 100% 92% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.9% 92% +13.4%
10% +3.9% 58% +2.5%
15% -6.1% 25% -7.4%
20% -15.3% 8% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses12 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)12 / 19
History coverage106d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 60¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-22%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 38¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-46%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 44¢ 26¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +21%
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $25 +$7 +27%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $50 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $23 +$8 +33%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Lucas Paquetá be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ May 19 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? May 16 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 11 $30 +$16 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $30 +$8 +27%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $24 +$6 +27%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $18 +$6 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 3d
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 6d
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 6d
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $12 8d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 8d
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 8d
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 8d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 11d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 72¢ $20 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $25 11d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $53 11d
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 11d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $23 25d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 34d
Will Lucas Paquetá be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ BUY Yes 86¢ $20 34d
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 57d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 65¢ $30 57d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $30 65d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY No 79¢ $24 79d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY No 74¢ $18 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.98 · official $57.03 (match) · 31 history records