Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0D 0x0d8d…661f crypto 500 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$312 (+5%) realized +$322 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%241W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$4
14 days−$14
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$142
other 10% −$6
sports 2% +$30
world 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +1.9% -7.8% 55% 53% -7.6%
≤30d 164 +4.1% -5.8% 55% 51% -5.6%
≤90d 486 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 48% -6.7%
all 486 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 48% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 48% -6.7%
10% -23.9% 43% -15.6%
15% -31.2% 39% -23.8%
20% -38.0% 34% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$322
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses241 / 245
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions14
Markets (closed)486 / 500
History coverage74d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 486 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 95¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 83¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 88¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 201 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $23 +$5 +22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $13 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 +$2 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$16 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.32 · official $70.32 (match) · 1225 history records