Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0D 0x0d8d…0b73 crypto 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$989 (+15%) realized +$993 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%34W / 68L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days−$589
14 days−$589
30 days−$946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$965
sports 15% −$100
other 11% −$107
finance 0% −$6
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -53.7% -58.1% 20% 20% -51.6%
≤30d 30 -55.4% -59.6% 20% 20% -48.8%
≤90d 102 -24.2% -31.4% 33% 33% +1.4%
all 102 -24.2% -31.4% 33% 33% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 33% +1.4%
10% -38.0% 32% -8.3%
15% -44.0% 30% -17.2%
20% -49.5% 30% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$41 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized+$993
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses34 / 68
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)102 / 107
History coverage78d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 41¢ 18¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-57%)
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Ecuador 12¢ 6¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Ecuador 23¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $41 −$35 -86%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$21 +21%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $41 −$41 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $41 −$39 -95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$9 -85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$70 -69%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $102 −$14 -14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$87 -86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +89%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $173 −$170 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $63 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 06 $418 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 06 $91 −$88 -96%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $304 +$251 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 08 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 08 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 29 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 29 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$10 +204%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 28 $518 +$481 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 28 $210 +$491 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 28 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 28 $104 +$126 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 28 $10 +$22 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 12¢ $10 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 23¢ $10 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 41¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 5¢ $6 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 34¢ $41 5d
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 5d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 0¢ $0 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 2¢ $2 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 0¢ $1 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $32 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $89 5d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 18¢ $41 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $41 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $14 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $41 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.47 · official $236.47 (match) · 253 history records