Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0D 0x0d93…8cbe politics 426 markets active 0h ago coverage 193d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 193d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,381 (+15%) realized +$10,989 · open +$392
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate70%291W / 123L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$5,701now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 193d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% +$6,632
other 14% +$648
world 0% +$20
economics 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -11.8% -20.2% 32% 17% -41.1%
≤30d 68 -13.1% -21.4% 44% 24% -26.1%
≤90d 212 +4.6% -5.4% 71% 24% -5.8%
all 414 +12.3% +1.6% 70% 22% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 22% -4.2%
10% -8.1% 13% -13.3%
15% -17.0% 9% -21.7%
20% -25.1% 7% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$34 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$5,701
Realized+$10,989
Unrealized+$392
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses291 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions40
Markets (closed)414 / 426
History coverage193d ⚠
Avg bet$182
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $1,026 $1,055 +$29 (+3%)
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? Yes 86¢ 94¢ $623 $680 +$58 (+9%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 82¢ 89¢ $509 $551 +$43 (+8%)
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $476 $493 +$17 (+4%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 27? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $377 $450 +$73 (+19%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $338 $345 +$8 (+2%)
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 90¢ 97¢ $302 $326 +$24 (+8%)
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? No 63¢ 97¢ $189 $291 +$102 (+54%)
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat? Yes 84¢ 93¢ $248 $274 +$26 (+11%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? Yes 96¢ 93¢ $205 $200 −$5 (-2%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 10%? No 91¢ 99¢ $154 $169 +$14 (+9%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Diego County? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $145 $147 +$2 (+1%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 88¢ 95¢ $97 $104 +$7 (+7%)
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $89 $90 +$2 (+2%)
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 10–15%? No 97¢ 98¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Diego County? No 98¢ 98¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $56 $58 +$2 (+3%)
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 5–10%? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gary Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? No 98¢ 96¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will turnout be between 63% and 66% in the Czech election? Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Motoristé get more than 9% of the vote in the Czech election? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ciprian Ciucu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-elect Jun 18 $42 −$68 -161%
Will Johannes Kaiser come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chile Jun 18 $115 −$103 -90%
Will Motoristé get between 3% and 5% of the vote in the Czech election Jun 18 $120 −$117 -98%
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the fourth most Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SPOLU get between 20% and 23% of the vote in the Czech election? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will DPP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chil Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will ANO get less than 27% of the vote in the Czech election? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will turnout be between 72% and 75% in the Netherlands Parliamentary E Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in Jun 18 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Přísaha get between 3% and 5% of the vote in the Czech election? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Motoristé get less than 3% of the vote in the Czech election? Jun 18 $11 −$12 -102%
Will Evelyn Matthei come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilea Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Jeannette Jara come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilea Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SPOLU get more than 26% of the vote in the Czech election? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Jun 18 $34 −$31 -91%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 18 $791 −$768 -97%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidentia Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10–15%? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will ANO get between 27% and 30% of the vote in the Czech election? Jun 18 $124 −$124 -100%
Will ANO get between 30% and 33% of the vote in the Czech election? Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Johannes Kaiser come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilea Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Franco Parisi come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Catalin Drula finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-elect Jun 18 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Motoristé get between 7% and 9% of the vote in the Czech election Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $331 +$89 +27%
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $128 +$50 +39%
Will Everett Wess be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $0 +$5 +3750%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $590 +$80 +14%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o Jun 13 $97 +$3 +3%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $29 +$14 +48%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 13 $196 +$47 +24%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $47 +$3 +6%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be below 60 Jun 13 $184 +$9 +5%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $75 +$3 +4%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $206 +$28 +14%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 11 $3 +$2 +45%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $105 +$25 +24%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $49 +$11 +21%
Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election Jun 10 $24 −$11 -47%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $9 −$3 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 74¢ $7 27m
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 74¢ $15 32m
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY No 97¢ $79 1h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 70¢ $7 6h
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 96¢ $10 11h
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 96¢ $33 11h
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 96¢ $77 11h
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 96¢ $29 11h
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 96¢ $10 11h
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary BUY Yes 95¢ $19 17h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 44¢ $58 17h
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? BUY No 99¢ $20 18h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 86¢ $13 26h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 80¢ $4 26h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY No 89¢ $18 29h
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 90¢ $27 29h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY No 88¢ $27 30h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY No 88¢ $18 30h
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 86¢ $17 30h
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 86¢ $26 30h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY No 90¢ $22 30h
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 95¢ $22 30h
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 95¢ $26 30h
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 95¢ $142 30h
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 96¢ $144 30h
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 89¢ $9 30h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY No 80¢ $48 30h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY No 74¢ $75 30h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY No 74¢ $37 30h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY No 74¢ $22 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,700.76 · official $5,699.82 (match) · 3500 history records