Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0D 0x0d95…06e6 crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$359 (-16%) realized −$349 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%21W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days+$148
14 days+$148
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$407
other 26% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +14.2% +3.4% 64% 64% +18.2%
≤30d 11 +14.2% +3.4% 64% 64% +18.2%
≤90d 11 +14.2% +3.4% 64% 64% +18.2%
all 61 -25.2% -32.3% 34% 34% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 34% -22.3%
10% -38.8% 30% -29.8%
15% -44.7% 25% -36.6%
20% -50.1% 16% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$19 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$349
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses21 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage139d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $185 $175 −$10 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $127 +$60 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +49%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 −$2 -4%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$11 -23%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $71 +$36 +51%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $77 +$35 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $53 +$24 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $40 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +115%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 03 $26 −$26 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 03 $39 −$12 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 6PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 28 $50 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 28 $20 −$20 -99%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 28 $20 −$20 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 12PM ET Feb 28 $89 −$81 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12PM ET Feb 28 $57 +$32 +56%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 28 $85 −$27 -32%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 28 $30 +$14 +45%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 11AM ET Feb 28 $10 +$10 +104%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 11AM ET Feb 28 $66 +$14 +22%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 1PM ET Feb 27 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 1AM ET Feb 27 $26 +$4 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 27 $20 −$20 -99%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 12AM ET Feb 27 $54 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Feb 27 $20 −$5 -26%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 10PM ET Feb 27 $40 +$81 +203%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 27 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9PM ET Feb 27 $20 +$17 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 27 $20 −$5 -26%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 9PM ET Feb 27 $79 +$6 +8%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 27 $125 +$30 +24%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 27 $48 +$43 +90%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 27 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 27 $5 +$13 +267%
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 27 $5 +$18 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5AM ET Feb 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $187 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $187 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $96 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 32¢ $39 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $36 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $107 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 6h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $71 6h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $112 6h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $77 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $53 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $33 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $25 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $11 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $6 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $16 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $11 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 112d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $22 112d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $4 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.93 · official $180.62 · 128 history records