Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0D 0x0d98…dfd9 crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+6%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day37.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 61% 52% -5.3%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 61% 52% -5.3%
≤90d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 61% 52% -5.3%
all 23 -0.1% -9.6% 61% 52% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 52% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 30% -14.4%
15% -26.1% 22% -22.6%
20% -33.4% 13% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day37.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $23 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $38 −$13 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $38 +$13 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$3 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$14 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records