Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0D 0x0d9a…ac6a other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+5%) realized +$16 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$42
14 days+$17
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$7
sports 15% −$2
crypto 7% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -13.0% -21.3% 38% 38% -37.2%
≤30d 25 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 48% -4.6%
≤90d 25 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 48% -4.6%
all 25 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 48% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 48% -4.6%
10% -20.9% 48% -13.7%
15% -28.6% 44% -22.1%
20% -35.6% 32% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 41
History coverage14d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $49 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 +$3 +312%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 $0 -15%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $8 +$2 +30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$1 -11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$9 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$21 +70%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$3 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 23h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 81¢ $4 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $24 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 4d
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 SELL Under 77¢ $11 4d
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $8 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 91¢ $14 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.30 · official $49.79 (match) · 65 history records