Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0d9a…6ac0 other 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$583 (+11%) realized +$590 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%21W / 39L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$200
7 days+$533
14 days+$525
30 days+$525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$666
sports 22% +$20
world 6% −$163
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +34.2% +21.4% 36% 32% +4.7%
≤30d 60 +32.0% +19.5% 35% 32% +4.2%
≤90d 60 +32.0% +19.5% 35% 32% +4.2%
all 60 +32.0% +19.5% 35% 32% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.5% 32% +4.2%
10% +8.0% 30% -5.8%
15% -2.4% 25% -14.9%
20% -12.0% 22% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$27 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$472
Realized+$590
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses21 / 39
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions9
Markets (closed)60 / 69
History coverage13d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $137 $149 +$11 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $140 $127 −$12 (-9%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 52¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$87 +425%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 +$24 +21%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $20 +$28 +137%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 +$60 +584%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $302 +$23 +8%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $17 +$194 +1115%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $172 +$83 +48%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$17 -54%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$5 -5%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $112 −$88 -79%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $26 +$80 +310%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $41 −$24 -58%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $31 +$232 +752%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$87 -86%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$26 +84%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$43 -42%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$7 -13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$9 -44%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $201 −$117 -58%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$20 -39%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$132 +259%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$42 -82%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $202 +$71 +35%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$3 -7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $197 +$107 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $313 −$105 -34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $468 +$36 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $229 +$132 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 51m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $95 52m
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 52m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $112 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 60¢ $108 4h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $135 5h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $111 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 42¢ $49 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $127 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 10h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 57¢ $70 10h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $325 11h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 11h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $302 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $212 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $254 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $472.03 · official $472.03 (match) · 167 history records