Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:57:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0d9b…3594 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-5%) realized −$25 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$145
14 days+$125
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$61
other 27% +$74
world 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +30.1% +17.7% 60% 60% +34.5%
≤30d 28 +3.1% -6.7% 46% 46% +24.0%
≤90d 28 +3.1% -6.7% 46% 46% +24.0%
all 28 +3.1% -6.7% 46% 46% +24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 46% +24.0%
10% -15.6% 46% +12.2%
15% -23.8% 43% +1.3%
20% -31.2% 36% -8.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$4 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage11d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$72 +120%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$47 +93%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $50 −$3 -5%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 +$6 +118%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 +$7 +134%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$5 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +158%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 -10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $100 50m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $132 56m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $97 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $66 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 12h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $50 12h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 12h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $47 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 44h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 44h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 19¢ $3 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.51 · official $99.51 (match) · 48 history records