Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0D 0x0d9d…df8a other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 379d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$47 (-4%) realized −$31 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%23W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$80
crypto 30% −$124
economics 25% +$134
sports 8% +$6
world 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.9% -12.2% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 1 -2.9% -12.2% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 1 -2.9% -12.2% 0% 0% -12.2%
all 57 -20.6% -28.1% 40% 39% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 39% -12.7%
10% -35.0% 33% -21.1%
15% -41.3% 30% -28.7%
20% -47.0% 23% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

379d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 61
History coverage379d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $66 $59 −$7 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $42 $46 +$3 (+7%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $46 −$1 -3%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Feb 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11AM ET Feb 09 $3 +$3 +79%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Feb 08 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 8? Feb 08 $5 +$3 +75%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 2PM ET Feb 07 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jan 30 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 11AM ET Jan 28 $100 +$24 +24%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 28 $100 −$98 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jan 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 17? Jan 17 $59 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 10AM ET Jan 16 $51 +$8 +16%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $320 +$144 +45%
Will SK Sigma Olomouc win on 2025-08-21? Aug 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Malmo FF vs. SK Sigma Olomouc end in a draw? Aug 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? Aug 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Mariners vs. Phillies Aug 21 $30 +$6 +19%
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Aug 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Brewers vs. Cubs Aug 20 $5 +$4 +82%
Astros vs. Tigers Aug 20 $20 +$13 +64%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Jul 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 09 $15 +$14 +95%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on July 11? Jul 07 $10 $0 -3%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on July 11? Jul 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jamal Musiala be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World C Jul 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World C Jul 06 $10 −$10 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Bayern (To Advance) Jul 06 $4 +$3 +67%
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? Jul 05 $25 −$7 -28%
Will Al Hilal beat Fluminense in regulation time? Jul 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Palmeiras beat Chelsea in regulation time? Jul 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Fluminense vs. Al Hilal: 3+ Goals Scored? Jul 05 $5 +$5 +104%
Palmeiras vs. Chelsea: 3+ Goals Scored? Jul 05 $5 +$6 +127%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Jul 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Man City win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Iran declare war on Israel before July? Jun 27 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 27 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Manchester City win Group G at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 27 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Palmeiras win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 27 $9 +$8 +87%
Will Internazionale win Group E at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 27 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Real Madrid win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 27 $20 +$3 +16%
Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Chelsea win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $12 −$10 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 59m
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $45 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $45 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $43 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $46 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $46 9d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 108d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 138d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 138d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 138d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 138d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 138d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 8? SELL Up 100¢ $8 138d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 8? BUY Up 57¢ $5 139d
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 2PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 140d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $4 147d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 11AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $124 149d
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 11AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $100 149d
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $100 149d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $4 149d
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $58 160d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 17? SELL Yes 66¢ $62 160d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $59 161d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $59 161d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $51 161d
Will SK Sigma Olomouc win on 2025-08-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 309d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.39 · official $111.39 (match) · 140 history records