Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:39:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d9e…f53a sports 1380 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,207 (-29%) realized −$1,204 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%535W / 840L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day76.1pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$84
14 days−$140
30 days−$504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$342
crypto 10% −$152
other 7% −$39
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -6.3% -15.2% 41% 39% -19.6%
≤30d 1036 -17.5% -25.4% 36% 32% -25.5%
≤90d 1375 -13.8% -22.0% 39% 35% -21.1%
all 1375 -13.8% -22.0% 39% 35% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 35% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 30% -28.7%
15% -36.3% 26% -35.6%
20% -42.5% 22% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$1,204
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses535 / 840
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1375 / 1380
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day76.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Under 79¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Under 70¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Over 23¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 Over 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Will Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +53%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +132%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +108%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +61%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -85%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +49%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -35%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -88%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +148%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +111%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -49%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -85%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +164%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +103%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$7 +72%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 −$5 -76%
Raja Club Athletic vs. UnionTouargaSports: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$2 +194%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $28 $0 +1%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +72%
HUS Agadir vs. RS Berkane: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will HUS Agadir vs. RS Berkane end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 −$2 -49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 4m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 6m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 7m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 60¢ $2 7m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 7m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 14m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $1 14m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 15m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 69¢ $2 16m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 58¢ $1 36m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 37m
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 44m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 47m
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $2 51m
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 51m
Will Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $2 52m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 52m
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $2 53m
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4 54m
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 58m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $1 1h
Will Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? BUY No 44¢ $1 1h
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 1h
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $2 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 1h
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.78 · official $7.78 (match) · 3500 history records