Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

0D 0x0d9f…ff8e sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$5,433 (+8%) realized +$5,547 · open −$114

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate81%13W / 3L

Drawdown73%max

Avg bet$4,221per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$278est.

Kalshi-fit76%portable

Net worth$3,209now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-5.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-2.7%	-12.0%	67%	67%	-6.3%
≤30d	3	-2.7%	-12.0%	67%	67%	-6.3%
≤90d	16	+4.4%	-5.5%	81%	50%	-6.6%
all	16	+4.4%	-5.5%	81%	50%	-6.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-5.5%	50%	-6.6%
10% ← realistic here	-14.6%	31%	-15.5%
15%	-22.8%	31%	-23.7%
20%	-30.4%	12%	-31.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 33% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

38% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +32% → late -23% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$795 vs −$2,699 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.28 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage

Net worth$3,209

Realized+$5,547

Unrealized−$114

Win rate (resolved)81%

Wins / losses13 / 3

Est. fees paid−$278

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage78d

Avg bet$4,221

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown73%

Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	73¢	70¢	$3,322	$3,209	−$114 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 18	$3,021	−$3,000	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$4,436	+$1,927	+43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$2,990	+$1,448	+48%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies	Apr 08	$31	−$31	-100%
Pistons vs. Magic	Apr 06	$5,164	−$5,067	-98%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	Apr 06	$7,925	+$1,234	+16%
Pistons vs. 76ers	Apr 05	$7,547	+$377	+5%
Wizards vs. Heat	Apr 04	$7,187	+$359	+5%
Magic vs. Mavericks	Apr 04	$6,643	+$553	+8%
Jazz vs. Rockets	Apr 04	$6,520	+$122	+2%
Bulls vs. Knicks	Apr 04	$5,892	+$628	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Apr 03	$1,100	+$184	+17%
Nuggets vs. Jazz	Apr 02	$4,552	+$257	+6%
Celtics vs. Heat	Apr 02	$3,071	+$1,486	+48%
Raptors vs. Pistons	Apr 01	$1,550	+$1,002	+65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31?	Mar 31	$786	+$761	+97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$4	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$3,345	1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	77¢	$3,021	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$6,363	23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$4,436	29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	99¢	$4,438	29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$2,990	31h
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies	BUY Grizzlies	2¢	$31	72d
Pistons vs. Magic	BUY Pistons	37¢	$5,164	72d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	SELL Cavaliers	100¢	$9,159	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	87¢	$4,461	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	85¢	$41	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	85¢	$37	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	85¢	$6	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	85¢	$93	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	85¢	$28	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	85¢	$255	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	86¢	$30	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	86¢	$132	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	86¢	$188	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	86¢	$254	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	86¢	$320	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	86¢	$5	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	86¢	$254	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	86¢	$138	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	86¢	$35	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	86¢	$136	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	86¢	$27	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	86¢	$54	73d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	86¢	$254	73d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,208.66 · official $3,208.66 (match) · 60 history records