Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0D 0x0da0…c1b1 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$65 (-23%) realized −$64 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$67
14 days−$67
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$81
sports 28% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +23.1% +11.3% 62% 62% -35.2%
≤30d 13 +23.1% +11.3% 62% 62% -35.2%
≤90d 13 +23.1% +11.3% 62% 62% -35.2%
all 13 +23.1% +11.3% 62% 62% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.3% 62% -35.2%
10% +0.7% 54% -41.4%
15% -9.0% 38% -47.0%
20% -18.0% 31% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$17 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage26d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 35¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 83¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $182 −$83 -45%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $12 +$8 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $9 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 48¢ $13 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 81¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $4 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $10 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 27h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 27h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 27h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $2 27h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $2 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 30h
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $80 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $99 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $99 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.77 · official $31.77 (match) · 41 history records