Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0D 0x0da0…b331 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$484 (+11%) realized +$409 · open +$75
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$79
other 49% +$531
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% +1.2%
≤30d 10 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% +1.2%
≤90d 10 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% +1.2%
all 10 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 50% +1.2%
10% -37.4% 30% -8.5%
15% -43.5% 20% -17.3%
20% -49.0% 20% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$105 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,100
Realized+$409
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions12
Markets (closed)10 / 22
History coverage3d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 37¢ $150 $254 +$104 (+69%)
Portugal to win the second half? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $175 $162 −$13 (-8%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 30¢ 28¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 35¢ 34¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 32¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Portugal 14¢ 14¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $760 +$117 +15%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $854 +$158 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$160 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $304 +$296 +97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $77 −$75 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $590 +$170 +29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $61 50m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $36 52m
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $76 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $81 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $102 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $51 13h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 13h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 84¢ $854 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $877 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $760 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $152 20h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 35¢ $24 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $304 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $77 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $303 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 18¢ $51 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $760 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $138 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $301 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $76 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $154 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $180 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,099.90 · official $1,099.95 (match) · 34 history records