Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0D 0x0da5…b60d sports 9 markets active 3d ago coverage 172d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$656 (-11%) realized −$656 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$693per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$284
14 days−$284
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$380
other 20% −$276
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -50.0% -54.7% 50% 0% -54.3%
≤30d 2 -50.0% -54.7% 50% 0% -54.3%
≤90d 2 -50.0% -54.7% 50% 0% -54.3%
all 9 +12.1% +1.4% 56% 22% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 22% -19.0%
10% -8.3% 11% -26.8%
15% -17.2% 11% -33.9%
20% -25.3% 11% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$586 vs −$897 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$656
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage172d
Avg bet$693
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $290 −$284 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $290 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 2? Jan 04 $290 $0 +0%
Nuggets vs. Heat Dec 29 $728 −$728 -100%
Kings vs. Lakers Dec 29 $840 +$160 +19%
Grizzlies vs. Wizards Dec 28 $1,610 −$1,610 -100%
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Dec 28 $966 −$966 -100%
Nets vs. Timberwolves Dec 28 $566 +$2,764 +488%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $662 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $290 3d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $290 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $290 169d
Nuggets vs. Heat BUY Nuggets 56¢ $326 173d
Nuggets vs. Heat BUY Nuggets 56¢ $402 173d
Kings vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 84¢ $840 173d
Grizzlies vs. Wizards BUY Grizzlies 70¢ $20 173d
Grizzlies vs. Wizards BUY Grizzlies 70¢ $3 173d
Grizzlies vs. Wizards BUY Grizzlies 70¢ $1,476 173d
Grizzlies vs. Wizards BUY Grizzlies 70¢ $93 173d
Grizzlies vs. Wizards BUY Grizzlies 70¢ $4 173d
Grizzlies vs. Wizards BUY Grizzlies 70¢ $13 173d
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers BUY Celtics 69¢ $955 173d
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers BUY Celtics 69¢ $11 173d
Nets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nets 17¢ $566 174d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 BUY No 99¢ $662 175d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records