Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0D 0x0db2…f3fa other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$258 (-45%) realized −$1 · open −$257
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$6
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% −$238
other 3% +$6
politics 0% −$3
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +50.5% +36.1% 100% 100% +28.0%
≤30d 13 -1.0% -10.4% 62% 62% +20.1%
≤90d 13 -1.0% -10.4% 62% 62% +20.1%
all 13 -1.0% -10.4% 62% 62% +20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 62% +20.1%
10% -19.0% 54% +8.6%
15% -26.8% 54% -1.9%
20% -34.0% 31% -11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.22 per $1 lost it wins $4.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$257
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage29d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $271 $41 −$230 (-85%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 3¢ 0¢ $28 $1 −$26 (-95%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +53%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $11 +$4 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $19 +$10 +52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $6 +$5 +75%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 23 $1 $0 -31%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22? May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $43 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $19 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $54 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $46 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $20 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $20 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $50 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $18 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $3 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $7 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $5 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $3 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $6 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $11 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $12 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $19 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $19 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.66 · official $42.66 (match) · 91 history records