Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0db3…ae9c crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$212 (-11%) realized −$213 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$240
other 15% −$67
sports 1% +$40
politics 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +51.6% +37.2% 75% 50% -8.6%
≤30d 37 +6.3% -3.8% 57% 46% -23.3%
≤90d 40 +1.5% -8.2% 55% 45% -23.4%
all 40 +1.5% -8.2% 55% 45% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 45% -23.4%
10% -17.0% 42% -30.7%
15% -25.0% 35% -37.4%
20% -32.3% 28% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$35 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage34d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $108 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 +$9 +9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$29 +188%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 +$8 +109%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 23 $314 −$178 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 23 $133 +$49 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 23 $75 +$58 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 23 $41 +$33 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 23 $103 −$66 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 23 $316 −$211 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 23 $128 −$50 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 23 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 23 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 23 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 23 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 23 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 23 $6 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 23 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 23 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 23 $26 +$10 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 23 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 21 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 21 $7 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 21 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 21 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 21 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 21 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 21 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 21 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 21 $103 +$31 +30%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 21 $34 −$34 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 14 $25 +$7 +26%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $111 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $112 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $44 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $44 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $15 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $7 3d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $133 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $135 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $181 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $133 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $75 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $75 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $37 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $105 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $316 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $68 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $9 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $24 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $40 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.85 · official $109.85 (match) · 130 history records