Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0db4…b190 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% $0
politics 30% $0
world 19% $0
sports 11% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 37 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage294d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $71 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jan 31 $8 $0 -3%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 19 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Sep 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $4 $0 -6%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $37 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 8h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $3 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $29 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $4 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $30 21d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 276d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $7 276d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 276d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 276d
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $23 276d
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $23 276d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $26 277d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.42 · official $36.90 (match) · 114 history records